Hi eveyone,
The holiday mood is here, Christmas and the New Year is around to corner. I looking to wind on trading for the rest of the year. Trade with care this time of the year.
Most institutional traders who have met their targets are probably closing their books and locking in the profits for the year. As for those who have not, are probably looking to get that last push to earn in their bonuses, so these guys can aggressively push the market in their favour. Hence during this time of the year, there will be less liquidity and market movements and be more volatile.
Anyways.... analysing the market before taking your trades does not change. Stick to your rules and trade accordingly.
Let's have a look at how I usually do my analysis.
I am a believer of multiple time frame (TF) analysis. First look at the bigger TF to determine the bigger picture, the bigger movements. GBPJPY Chart
You should be able to see a resistance turned support zone at 147.20/50 levels. Price got resisted there in May and July once it broke above, it then became a support level that held in early October and late November. At the top we see another resistance level at around 152.60.
We are at 151.50 at the point of writing this moment. We are neither at resistance nor at support. The chart is telling me that there is no trade to be made at this levels.
Let's zoom in further into the H4 charts.
I use quite a lot of Harmonic Patterns in my trading. Here I have spotted a Bullish Gartley Pattern (in Green), completing around the 147.70 levels. This is near the support levels that we have identified on the Daily chart.
There is also a Bearish Shark Pattern (in Gold), with the PRZ at around the 153.30/40 levels. Completing the pattern would indicate a potential to take a short trade. This would be near the resistance levels that we have identified on the Daily charts.
By aligning the smaller TF analysis with the higher TF analysis, we are actually increasing our probability of success. When closer to the mentioned levels, I would probably zoom further into the hourly chart to look for hints and get a better/earlier entry.
So in the mean time.... stay cool and be patient. The name of the game is patience.
Ask yourself these questions :
- can price break through above the Resistance levels ?
- can price break down below the Support levels ?
Your answer to the above two questions should be YES. So never never risk everything on a single trade, and of course set your stop losses. If your trade is wrong, so be it.... it is wrong and get out of the trade. Being stubborn can kill your trading account.
Cheers everyone. Let's monitor this GBPJPY trade together. Might just be a first trade for next year. Enjoy the holiday period
Announcement :
I am kick starting the workshops again in Jan. If you like to see how I trade using the Harmonic Patterns, RSVP and come join me on the 3rd Jan evening. See you there... come have a chat with me..... bring like minded friends along too.